A divided world on terror
China's decided to veto India's proposal to ban Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar at the UN.
In fact, the relationship with China saw several lows in 2016 vowing to China's economic corridor through Pakistan, India's invitations to Uighur, Falun Gong and Tibetan activists, the expulsion of Chinese journalists from Mumbai, the Chinese block on Nuclear Suppliers Group membership for India, and the rumblings over the South China Sea all added to tensions between the two countries; the Chinese decision to put a permanent block on the Azhar proposal aggravated them further.
Not the first time, but....
China's decision was outrageous and ill-advised. In the past, Beijing blocked India's proposals at the UN to designate HizbulMujahideen chief and some members of the Lashkar-e-Taiba as terrorists, and blocked questions on how designated terrorists Hafiz Saeed and Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi accessed funds in Pakistan despite UN sanctions.
But Azhar's case was different as ample evidence was in the public domain itself.
Despite all that evidence, it took two years and the 9/11 attacks for the JeM to be designated as a terror group by UNSC 1267 sanctions committee in 2001. It seems unbelievable that 15 years later, despite his complicity in everything from the Parliament attack to the Pathankot attack and everything in between, Azhar hasn't yet been added to that list, largely due to China?s ignominious role.
It's not just China
It would be a mistake, however, if New Delhi sees China's move purely in bilateral terms, and ignores the larger trend it represents: of a fragmenting global consensus on terrorism. The impact of this fragmentation can be seen at several levels now: at the UN, in the tussle between the U.S. and Russia, and for India, in regional ties.
Changing narrative
After the 9/11 attacks, the global consensus to fight the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and all allied groups was formed by the UNSC resolution on terrorism in 2001. Already, in 1999, the UN had set up an al-Qaeda/Taliban sanctions committee to impose strictures on anyone dealing with the Taliban and Osama bin Laden.
That narrative has since changed. In January 2010, at an international conference hosted by the U.K., the UN and the U.S. openly backed efforts to talk peace with the Taliban. In 2011, the UNSC made it simply the al-Qaeda sanctions committee, separating the Taliban committee so as to facilitate talks by delisting Taliban leaders being engaged.
In 2015, the UNSC made a further shift by renaming it "ISIL (Da'esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee?.
Impact of U.S.-Russia ties
Apart from the UN, shifting U.S.-Russia ties have also made a great impact on the global terror consensus. In 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin was one of the first foreign leaders to speak to President George W. Bush, expressing full support for the U.S. fight against al-Qaeda, which would in turn help Russia with its Islamist threat as well.
Not only that, Mr. Putin reversed Russian policy of decades, allowing the U.S. to set up bases across Central Asia and virtually take over Afghanistan's security command.
That relationship no longer exists, and Russia is questioning the U.S. presence in its backyard again.
Russia's other moves - a new closeness with China, and growing ties with Pakistan - are a third factor impacting global consensus. A trilateral meeting of the three countries in Moscow called for a "flexible approach" to remove some Taliban figures from the UN sanctions list as part of efforts to "foster a peaceful dialogue between Kabul and the Taliban movement".
No doubt, the recent Taliban statement that it won't target infrastructure projects in Afghanistan is significant, given China's high-stakes "One Belt, One Road' plan that runs through the region.
On the other side, the U.S. has been pushing for the removal of other groups in Afghanistan from sanctions, a move that Russia blocked at the UN.
Who's with who?
Russia's Pakistan engagement cannot be disconnected from India's concerns either. It is significant that among the P5, the U.S., U.K. and France co-sponsored India's resolution against Azhar, China vetoed it, but Russia, India?s traditional backer, did nothing at all.
At the BRICS summit in October and the Heart of Asia conference in December, it was the Russia-China combine that kept India's desire for tough statements on 'cross-border terrorism' from Pakistan at bay, and it was the Russian envoy who told India not to use 'multilateral forums for bilateral issues'.