Future of Paris Agreement
The European Union's ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement has brought it beyond the required threshold - ratification by more than 55 Parties to the Convention accounting for at least 55 per cent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This will ensure that the Agreement will enter into force on November, 2016.
Despite this success, Paris agreement leaves us with some unanswered questions.
- The Paris Agreement, in contrast with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, makes all countries responsible for reducing GHGs instead of just the rich or Annex-1 countries. Individual countries are now responsible for implementing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) goals which are partly or entirely conditional on financial support by the rich countries. The thorny question is that there is little sign of any significant progress towards this goal.
- A group of seven leading scientists produced a brief report in September this year called "The Truth about Climate Change." They explained that with the high levels of GHGs already in the atmosphere and the slow but perceptible response of the climate system, we can expect average global temperatures to rise by 1.5℃ in the 2030's and cross 2℃ as early as 2050. The current NDC pledges made by the countries of the world will not be sufficient to put us below the 2℃ target.
- Currently, about 82 per cent of the world's energy comes from burning fossil fuels. The world will have to go to "net zero" emissions over the next few decades in order to avoid exceeding a 2℃ rise by mid-century or soon thereafter. These changes will need to take place while the lives of the poor in developing nations continue to improve and the world population increases which seems a herculean task.
To answer the above questions, a single-minded purpose across nations rich and poor, weak and strong, is needed which is only possible if there is a sense of oneness, of global solidarity, to address climate change.