WMO Climate Warning: Earth’s Energy Imbalance and India’s Adaptation Priorities

What the WMO update establishes—and what remains provisional

The update places January–September 2026 global average surface temperature approximately 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average. It reports exceptional ocean warmth, record global sea level and continuing glacier retreat. The final ranking of 2026 is not yet settled because the observation period does not cover the full calendar year.

The report warns that the developing El Niño could increase temperatures further and influence extreme weather into 2027. This is a forecast, not confirmation that 2027 will set a temperature record. The final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is scheduled for March 2027.

• A partial-year average should not be treated as directly equivalent to a full-year average.
• A single year or shorter period near or above 1.5°C does not by itself establish that the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature limit has been crossed.
• Global mean warming is not the temperature increase experienced uniformly by every location.

Earth’s energy imbalance: the mechanism behind accumulating heat

Earth’s energy imbalance is the difference between incoming solar energy absorbed by the Earth system and outgoing energy radiated to space. A positive imbalance means that the planet gains more energy than it loses. The WMO update reports that this imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began, with the Earth system accumulating heat at an accelerating rate.

Higher greenhouse-gas concentrations impede the escape of outgoing infrared energy at a given temperature. The resulting excess energy warms the ocean, land and atmosphere and melts ice. The ocean absorbs approximately 90% of this excess heat, making ocean heat content a crucial indicator of sustained planetary warming rather than merely short-term weather.

El Niño principally redistributes existing heat between the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere; it is not the underlying source of the long-term accumulation of planetary heat. By acting on an already warmer climate, it can amplify surface temperatures and alter rainfall and extreme-weather risks.

• Greenhouse-gas-driven warming and natural climate variability operate together, but they are not interchangeable explanations.
• Loss of reflective snow and ice can increase solar-energy absorption, reinforcing warming through the ice–albedo feedback.
• Surface temperature alone does not capture the full extent of heat stored within the Earth system.

Melting ice and rising seas: interconnected but distinct risks

Ocean warming raises sea level through thermal expansion, while melting land-based glaciers and ice sheets add water to the ocean. Floating sea-ice melt has little direct effect on sea level, although its loss affects reflectivity and polar ecosystems. These distinctions are important for understanding why ocean warming and cryosphere decline must be monitored together.

For India, higher mean sea level can worsen coastal inundation, erosion, saline intrusion and storm-surge impacts. Local consequences also depend on land subsidence, sediment supply, coastal ecosystems and settlement patterns; a global sea-level indicator cannot substitute for location-specific risk assessment.

In the Himalayas, glacier retreat and unstable ice, rock and glacial lakes can create cascading hazards. The update’s account of a catastrophic ice-and-rock collapse and downstream flash flood in Nepal illustrates regional mountain risks, but it should not be treated as a prediction of an identical event in India.

• Coastal adaptation requires both sea-level information and local assessments of exposure and vulnerability.
• Mountain risk management should connect glacier and lake monitoring with downstream warning and evacuation arrangements.
• Changes in glacier storage can affect the seasonal availability of water, with implications for ecosystems, agriculture and hydropower.

India’s adaptation challenge: convert climate information into protection

The estimated exposure of 146.5 million people during India’s April 2026 heatwave highlights the scale of heat risk. Exposure is not the same as illness or mortality. Health outcomes depend on humidity, duration, night-time temperatures, access to cooling and water, working conditions and the vulnerability of exposed people.

Heat action plans should therefore link forecasts to operational decisions by local governments, health departments, employers and utilities. Priority measures include drinking water, shaded rest spaces, work–rest arrangements, passive cooling, heat-illness surveillance and reliable essential services. Outdoor workers, older persons, children and residents of poorly ventilated housing need targeted protection.

The WMO reports an increase in countries with essential multi-hazard early warning systems from 55 in 2015 to 136 in 2025. This progress does not automatically establish that every vulnerable person receives or can act on a warning. India’s priority should be an end-to-end system combining observation, forecasting, understandable communication and funded local response.

• El Niño can influence the Indian summer monsoon, but it does not make drought inevitable; other ocean–atmosphere conditions also matter.
• Preparedness should address compound stresses such as heat alongside water scarcity or electricity disruption.
• Adaptation should complement emissions reduction because continued warming increases future risks and adaptation burdens.